Higher spot prices on the way in August

In August, spot prices could increase, although the level will likely remain far below the average for this time of the year.

We have been through a couple of the cheapest months ever seen on the Nordic power market. The average system price in June and July was 3.15 EUR/MWh and 2.35 EUR/MWh respectively, and although the EPAD’s in Denmark, Southern Sweden and Finland have been skyrocketing, the total price levels in these countries have been lower than normal for the summer period.

Now however, something could indicate that prices are up for an increase in August. On the forward market, the Nordic August contract closed at around 6 EUR/MWh last Friday, on its last trading day and if the market delivers at these levels during the month, it will be more than twice as expensive a month as July.

We expect an average system price of August of around 5 – 5.50 EUR/MWh, and even though this will be higher than in June and July, it will still be far below the average price for this time of the year. As a comparison, the average spot price in August 2019 was 36.11 EUR/MWh, while the level in August 2018 was 51.56 EUR/MWh. In Denmark, Sweden and Finland, we expect rising prices in August as well, but despite the very high EPAD’s we expect the total prices to remain below seasonal average in these countries as well.

Higher consumption as people return to work following their summer vacations is one of the reason for the rising prices. Meanwhile, the weather forecasts now indicate drier and warmer weather during the first half of August.